Manal and Alaa's bit bucket

I agree with one of the posts here that a mass uprising might be the way to go, but such a thing will quickly be used and utilized by the Muslim Brotherhood. They are the ones who are closest to the masses and will no doubt make use of this. So is there is ever enough critical mass created and the situation turns into an actual popular uprising, which, by the way, i think will never happen, then this will result in a period of violent chaos and reprisals, followed by a theological dictatorship. In the case of Mobarak's death, i would say that Ala would probably get released after a couple of harrowing days when no noe will know what's going and rumors flying everywhere. If there is one thing we are good at, it is spreading rumors. Hey, have you heard that ....

Hi Alaa,..Manal The problem is if Gamal will take over,then you are in deep shit If you read the Egyptian history,Egyptian never change themslves by themslevs..always by outsiders..they are good hearted people. you did your best but people still the same.Consider change your way in a tougher way ..you know what i mean Thanks leew27st@yahoo.com

السؤال المطروحهو من سيحكم ؟ والإجابة ليست سهلة خاصة في بلد تكون القوة الوحيدة المتماسكة والمسلحة هي " الجيش " والسيناروهات كثيرة والناس تتداولها في الشوارع والصحافة وكل مكان. الإجابة الواضحة ان الشعب المصري لن تكون له كلمة في من سيحكمه في العشر سنوات او العشرين القادمة. والأسباب كثيرة لكن نستدعي من التاريخ المعاصر حكاية كيف تولى محمد علي ( الجيش ايضا ! ) السلطة حينما طلب منه المشايخ( المؤسسة الدينية ايضا !) ان يتسلم السلطة بعد خروج الجيش الفرنسي من مصر وتدهور حال المماليك ( العسكر ايضا !) ووافق الضابط الصغير محمد علي الذي كانت فرقته موجودة في القاهرة بالشروط المعروفة لمن يدرس التاريخ. من اوائل الاشياء التي فعلها انه تخلص من المشايخ وقضى على المماليك نهائيا ورتب لكي يكون الحكم في اسرته وراثيا ( كأنك ياجحا ر حت ولا غزيت !) وبتقصي الحال منذ يوليو اتنين وخمسين نجد انفسنا في نفس السيناريو مع بعض التعديلات. استيلاء ظباط يوليو على السلطة ثم حلهم الأحزاب قم مداولة السلطة فيما بينهم.اي العسكر مرة اخرى . وضع تشاؤمي ؟ بالطبع لكن هذه حقيقة من حقائق الوضع في مصر. يوجد امل ؟ بالطبع . هذه حقيقة أخرى . خاصة نقول للذين يخوفوننا من الإخوان ، بما فيهمالخائفين من الأقبط : هل سيكون الوضع اسوأ في حكم الأخوان؟ هل ستنتهي الانتهاكات الجنسية في اقسام البوليس . هل ستتوقف التحرشات الجنسية وتمزيق الملابس للمتظاهرات ؟ هل سيتوقف تزوير الانتخابات ؟ هل سيطبق القانون ويتساوى الجميع ؟ الرجال والنساء والمهمشين والنوبيين والمثليين الجنسيين ؟ هل ستتوقف الاعتداءات على الكنائس ؟ هل ستتم محاكمة من اعتدي على الأعراض من الشرطة وقطع يد السراق الين سرقوا قوت الناس ؟ الى آخره .. إلى آخرة! بعبارة مختصرة هل سيلغى العمل بقانون الطوارئ؟ القانون الذي بموجبه توجد نيابة امن دولة وبموجبه تم حبس الناس الموجودين ألان في السجن بتهمة اهانة رئيس الجمهورية .ز الذي قد يكون من الأخوان او من العسكر ؟

هدية لل شرقاوي وكل من يمر بظروفه الباشا سعادة الباشا مامور قسم قصر النيل صحا من نومه دعك عيونه المعمصين نزل رجله يجس الارض شمال و يمين ملقاش مداسه راح ساحب شخرة و سب الدين قلع بيجامته.. هرش حمامته.. لبس هدومه فى دقيقتين و بحركة خفيفة سحب سلاحه حطه فجمبو فغمضة عين نزل الشارع يركب بكسه والعسكري رن سرينتين تمام يا افندم ..تمام يا باشا.. اطلع علي فين؟؟؟ عالقسم يا ابنى..حاضر يا باشا وراحوا طالعين وعند القسم سلام سلاح و خبطوا الارض بالرجلين دخل الباشا على مكتبه..قلع الكاب ..فتح الديش و شاف فلمين جاتله اشارة من المدرية عن تواجد متظاهرين قال فعقله ولاد القحبة عاملين فيها وطنيين راح المهم والبهم و جوة طيازهم احشر كراتين بعد مجم نفذ وعده و هتك اعراضهم بالدور و فتح بقة و لعن الناظر والمنظور رجع المكتب ..صلى العصر ..وخرج و قفل النور from alexawy 2 el sharkawy be strong 10/6/2006

hosni mubarak is egypt's pharoah , and pharoah doesnt die , even if his body is dead , his guardians will be around to protect the regime . we need a wind of change !

Its so pathetic that us Egyptians would be in such shambles if Hosni was to go... its true though, who else would take over? if the Crazy muslim brotherhood took over, Egypt will be ruined and turned into another Afghanistan, So we need to ask ourselves, WHO CAN TAKE OVER? who is the best person for the job to lead a backwards people? YES we are backwards. Is Ayman Nour qualified? and if he is, is there any way to get him out of prison? Its so sad that such a country like Egypt with all our culture and all our good hearted people is so screwed up!! Mubarak or his goverment are not the only problem, its the mentality of the Egyptian people, we just settle for whatever happens and think all we have to do is sit there and pray, instead of going out and taking action!!

Alaa. Don't worry about Hosni. He won't die. A story was going around that Hosni's father died at the age of 104 in a motorcycle accident. So unless Hosni is not running around on a motor bike, the chances are low that death will remember him for the coming 25 years.

Under any circumstances, Rabenna yakhdoo - bas after you get out ISA.

I think it's just a matter of time till u come out.. homa bas ayzin yegibouh akhrak.. i don't think a lot of things will change if and when Mubarak dies.. the 2 scenarios are awful.. a new kid on the block- aris baka we mahadesh adouh- or the muslim brotherhood- so say goodbye to any good taste in the country.. hanebka aghanistan 3alla ahsan takdir. bas meanwhile am following ur blog so there's one more person who wont forget what u have done and what u are doing..!

Before yesterday there was a “ zarqay “ yesterday he was killed .. Today, he is mot around and tomorrow or after he would be forgotten! that what Marquez in his special genius setter had wrote in his “ The Autumn of the Patriarch “ about the dictators who live in their un real world when thy role and continue to live in this unreal world after thy been thrown out.. I had once upon a time saw a dictator : Mangesto Hella Miriam ( any person still remember such a name?! ) when he took over Abyssinia “ after killing all his colleges` He was a simple sergeant in the army of the ex emperor . I was in Adiss Ababa to do some journalism story , saw him in press conference, I stayed in the capital for 3 weeks. It was under daily curfew , my hotel was looking a small canal. Every morning I see some corpse ,in the water. I asked and thy told me that(Thy r the enemy of the state) When the revolution army came to the doors of the capital, he was saved by American military air-plains... He Mangesto claimed to be commonest! . The dead bodies were of the members of the communist party there .. he was the secretariat general!! So.. when he finished what he had been asked to do, the Americans helped to throw him out because his task is done! that what happened to many rulers in the Arab and African states . Thy r useful till certain time and then .. out! some of those people r obvious criminal like zarqay and some r presidents and kings ..thy all will go to the “ island” which Marquez had put his ex dictators in it on his novel! When Moubark goes .. there will be in " the waitting " the next ruler .. not his son !

اعتقد ان الاخوان حيمسكوا السلطة بعد ثورة اسلامية جامدة جدا, وحتبقي مصيبة لان الاخوان حيخلوا مصر كلها في ضلمة وحنقعد 30 سنه كمان علي بال ما الشعب يبتدى يتحرك ويثور علي الاخوان بعد ما يعرف انهم اصخم من حسني وساعتها بقي ممكن حد يفتكر الناس اللى كانوا معتقلين من ايام حسني...بالمناسبة انا مش شايف حد علي الساحة فعلا ممكن يبقي مكان حسني ودي مصيبة لاننا اتعودنا ان دايما فيه قائد واحد ورمز واحد والكلام الفارغ كله بتاع الاعلام الاهبل الحكومي بتاعنا. مشكلة مصر كبيرة وانت كمان مشكلتك كبيرة.

هو اكيد موته مش حيبقى في صالحك في الاول لانك حتطول شويه بس كله يهون عشان مصر و للا ايه لكن اكيد اي رئيس حييجي جديد حيفرج عن كل المعتقلين عشان يحسن صورته فمتخافش لي ملحوظه لعلاء و منال مدونتكم جميله بس ياريت تلتزموا شويه بالاداب و بلاش الفاظ وحشه و مواضيع هايفه

I'm sure there's millions thinking of hosni death, most of them see that it'll be great thing, but I'm not optimistic, I'm really frightened i can't imagine more 40 years of Mubarak's ruling and we're not sure when u get released.

فيه سيناريو تاني

انه يموت علي ايد كتائب الشهيد مالك مصطفي الجناح العسكري المنشق عن 30 فبراير

ساعتها هاتخرج علي ظهر دبابة و نروح كلنا علي مجمع قيادة الثورة في العمرانية

ملحوظة :

مش هاننسي نحاكم الجناح العسكري المنشق ده لاننا مش بنحب العنف

مش واثق ان السيناريو ده واقعي يا علاء

مذكرات السجون بتحكي ان المساجين عرفوا بخبر وفاة ناصر والسادات أول ما حصلوا و أذيعوا

ومتقلقش على ثبات الجهاز الأمني

هوا هيواصل خدمة النظام بغض النظر مين هيحطوه على راسه

U r right most of what u thought! The strange problem if Housni dies while u people are in prison will be solved by another people who r out of prison! This happened in Sudan after the fall of crazy Noumiery... that the Ahaly went towards the notorious Kober prison and begin to attack the doors by trailers. Thy opened a hole and went inside with sticks and knifes... there were very few officers left scared to death and gave them the keys of the cells . A friend of mine from inside the prison told me this story We will ask “the Democracy “to keep HIM in ice until the walls would be brooked! It is a serious question and it must have answer in the contrary of absurd ones, which no body can answer

Alaa,

I do not really know, maybe the sudden death of Mubarak usher your immediate release along with others who are detained by the state security on bogus charges. The shock of Mubarak's death might of course spark a series of unexpected events, so, why can't your release along with others be one of those events.

Alaa, I really hate to say it, and I know that this might not be a suitable time for you, but if you are reading this - I mean if Manal prints it for you and you read it in custody - then I would like you to start a debate, as big as you could possible have on how to draw analogy with other countries that managed to break free.

I mean if we look at relatively old experiences (Greece in the seventies, and Spain afterwards), relatively new, (Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines), new (Georgia and Ukraine), and very new (Nepal), and find common denominators in all those experiences. Maybe we can then draw lessons from what happened in those countries and use it to our advantage.

I am thinking of an analysis that I read sometime back in the economist comparing what happened in Ukraine with the situation in Uzbekistan, and the bottom line has always been the critical mass of people, financial resources, and leadership issues.

The demonstration at which you participate along with other activists has always been characterized by low turn out (relative to the size of the Egyptian population), lack of leadership, and the inability, or lack of desire to stay in the street until a change has taken place. We know that people are afraid, but why weren't they afraid in Ukraine or Nepal, this needs further examination.

Moreover, there is the issue of leadership, leadership is important, particularly in the case of Egyptians (they are always on the look for a hero, they love heroes because heroes do what an average Egyptians would normally fear doing, so, in the sense, they see in the hero what they would love to see in themselves, it is Egyptian thing and we all know it).

So, so as not to make this a very long post, I would say, that issues such as Leadership and Financial Resources needs to be tackled also in the context of trying to rally around as many Egyptians as we can. A capital like Cairo is growing to the size of Mexico City, we need more people demonstrating, standing their grounds, in the street, never ending their protests until the dictator steps down. I simply refuse to believe that he will detain hundreds of thousands of demonstrator or even millions of them. There is a limit to what the regime can do and everybody knows it.

On the issue of financial resources, I think we need a fund for compensating those who suffer as a result of expressing themselves and demonstrating against the regime, and those who are detained. The fund should be replenished by Egyptian Money, from Egyptians working abroad, EXPATS will participate more easily, they all left the country to escape Mubarak’s ruling. They also live abroad, so, they have on fear of participating in such venture. This fund is important on two accounts, first, is the provision of financial resources to those who suffer as a result of asking for change. And the second is that it shows the regime, and the activists in Egypt that the Egyptians abroad are a potent force that can help, and that they support change by peaceful means. Insisting on Egyptians only money is important so as not to give the regime a chance to cry foul on account of foreign intervention.

Finally, there is the external factors and the balance of power. The US, Israel, the Egyptian Copts and (believe it or not), even Saudi Arabia are all stakeholders in this process. You have to think of any envisaged change carefully, or any of these parties would be compelled to act if it feels any alienation of its right as a result of this regime change.

I have wrote this pretty quick (have work to do), but I think you got the main idea.

Regards

Akis Patsourakis

Although I don't believe in logic when discussing politics in Egypt,I mean u'll never know how things will go when Hosni dies,but I think ur conclusion is quite possible

so Rabena ye7'aly 7osni until u and the other folks r released,never thought enni hade3elo

Now U are talking like a selfish bastard

U deserve to rot in prison for a while

Acting like an asshole won't change things and U KNOW THAT

So why U do the things U do moron?